Purpose: To identify prognostic factors after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT).
Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the combined experience at Toronto General Hospital and Hospital Vall d'Hebron managing HCC recurrence after LT (n = 121) between 2000 and 2012. We analyzed prognostic factors by uni- and multi-variate analysis. Median follow-up from LT was 29.5 (range 2-129.4) months. Median follow-up from HCC recurrence was 12.2 (range 0.1-112.5) months.
Results: At recurrence, 31.4 % were treated with curative-intent treatments (surgery or ablation), 42.1 % received palliative treatment, and 26.4 % received best supportive care. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survivals, respectively, after HCC recurrence were 75, 60, and 31 %, vs. 60, 19, and 12 %, vs. 52, 4, and 5 % (p < 0.001). By multivariate analysis, not being amenable to a curative-intent treatment [hazard ratio (HR) 4.7, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 2.7-8.3, p < 0.001], α-fetoprotein of ≥100 ng/mL at the time of HCC recurrence (HR 2.1, 95 % CI 1.3-2.3, p = 0.002) and early recurrence (<12 months) after LT (HR 1.6, 95 % CI 1.1-2.5, p = 0.03) were found to be poor prognosis factors. A prognostic score was devised on the basis of these three independent variables. Patients were divided into three groups, as follows: good prognosis, 0 points (n = 22); moderate prognosis, 1 or 2 points (n = 84); and poor prognosis, 3 points (n = 15). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year actuarial survival for each group was 91, 50, and 50 %, vs. 52, 7, and 2 %, vs. 13, 0, and 0 %, respectively (p < 0.001).
Conclusions: Patients with HCC recurrence after transplant amenable to curative-intent treatments can experience significant long-term survival (~50 % at 5 years), so aggressive management should be offered. Poor prognosis factors after recurrence are not being amenable to a curative-intent treatment, α-fetoprotein of ≥100 ng/mL, and early (<1 year) recurrence after LT.