TY - JOUR T1 - Predictive Factors of Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy and External Validation of Predictive Scores JF - Anticancer Research JO - Anticancer Res SP - 499 LP - 504 DO - 10.21873/anticanres.13140 VL - 39 IS - 1 AU - MARCELLO DI MARTINO AU - ISMAEL MORA-GUZMAN AU - YAGO GARCÍA BLANCO-TRABA AU - MIGUEL CANTALEJO DÍAZ AU - MUHAMMAD ARSLAN KHURRAM AU - ELENA MARTÍN-PÉREZ Y1 - 2019/01/01 UR - http://ar.iiarjournals.org/content/39/1/499.abstract N2 - Background/Aim: The Fistula Risk Score (FRS), as other risk scores, is a validated model predicting the development of a clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We evaluated risk factors related with CR-POPF and correlated four predictive scores with the likelihood of developing CR-POPF in our cohort. Patients and Methods: The records of 107 patients who underwent PD from 2007 to 2015 were obtained from a prospectively maintained database and reviewed. CR-POPFs were categorized by the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) standards. Firstly, a univariate and multivariate analysis of risk factors related to CR-PPOPF was performed, and then the data were correlated with FRS, Wellner's, Robert's and Yamamoto's scores. Results: In total, 30 patients developed a CR-POPF. On multivariate analysis, abdominal thickness (OR=1.02, p=0.010), Wirsung's duct diameter (OR=0.57, p=0.029), pancreatic consistency (OR=3.18, p=0.011) and histological diagnosis of the lesion (OR=1.65, p=0.012) represented independent predictive factors of CR-POPF. FRS (R2=0.596, p=0.001), Wellner's score (R2=0.285, p=0.005) and Roberts' score (R2=0.385, p=0.002) correlated with the likelihood of developing CR-POPF. Conclusion: Abdominal thickness, Wirsung's duct diameter, pancreatic consistency and histological diagnosis were independent predictive factors of CR-POPF. Predictive scores reflected the likelihood of CR-POPF, FRS being the score with the highest predictive value. ER -