RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Independent External Validation of the METSSS Model Predicting Survival After Palliative Radiotherapy
JF Anticancer Research
JO Anticancer Res
FD International Institute of Anticancer Research
SP 1477
OP 1480
DO 10.21873/anticanres.15618
VO 42
IS 3
A1 NIEDER, CARSTEN
A1 MANNSÅKER, BARD
A1 YOBUTA, ROSALBA
YR 2022
UL http://ar.iiarjournals.org/content/42/3/1477.abstract
AB Background/Aim: A validation of the recently published METSSS model (developed from a large US database) predicting survival after palliative radiotherapy was performed. METSSS includes age, sex, cancer type, localization of distant metastases, comorbidity, and radiotherapy site. Patients and Methods: Both 1- and 5-year survival was assessed in the validation cohort. Deviations between model-predicted and observed survival were analyzed. Results: The METSSS model predicted a 1-year survival of 29% (cohort median, predicted probability 0-74% in individual patients). The observed 1-year survival rate was 33% (median survival 5.3 months). The corresponding figures for predicted 5-year survival were 0% and 0-46% (observed rate 3%). Statistical comparison of the survival curves was possible for two of three strata (insufficient number of low-risk patients) and the resulting p-value was 0.045. Conclusion: A complete validation was hampered by imbalances in group size. More than 90% of our patients were classified as high risk. If this distribution is representative for other countries, the METSSS model might need adjustment. However, its general ability to predict survival appears promising.