Prognostic Factors and Independent Validation of a Risk Stratification Model in Octogenarian Patients Irradiated for Brain Metastases

Abstract

Background/Aim: This study aimed at validation of a prognostic model, originally developed by Rades et al., in an age-restricted, particularly vulnerable subgroup of patients with brain metastases, because international variations in clinical practice and survival outcomes may impact on the performance of survival prediction tools. Patients and Methods: Retrospectively, data from a single institution were analyzed. The study included 50 patients managed with palliative whole-brain radiotherapy. The Rades et al. score was assigned and the resulting 3 prognostic strata compared. Results: The 3-month survival rates for the 3 strata were 0, 35, and 41%, respectively (p<0.001 pooled over all strata, log-rank test for Kaplan–Meier curves). However, the prognostic impact of extracranial metastases suggested by Rades et al., together with the performance status and number of brain metastases in their study of 94 patients, was absent. In contrast, cancer type (better survival for breast and melanoma) and lack of steroid treatment were significant in the present study. Conclusion: The original Rades et al. score is a useful prognostic model in our validation database. However, additional factors, such as primary cancer type and need to prescribe corticosteroids, appear to play a role and might therefore be considered when performing future large-scale studies.